Mongolia Weekly: Mongolia and Rio Tinto cut Oyu Tolgoi costs; Japan signs airport loan
September 26, 2026 to October 2, 2026 --- 1. Mongolia and Rio Tinto agree to cut Oyu Tolgoi financing and management costs Mongolia and Rio Tinto have agreed to amend the Oyu Tolgoi shareholders' agreement after negotiations confirmed in a September 11 joint statement by Prime Minister N
September 26, 2026 to October 2, 2026
1. Mongolia and Rio Tinto agree to cut Oyu Tolgoi financing and management costs
Mongolia and Rio Tinto have agreed to amend the Oyu Tolgoi shareholders’ agreement after negotiations confirmed in a September 11 joint statement by Prime Minister N. Uchral and Rio Tinto chief executive Simon Trott. Board member E. Mendtuvshin said the shareholder-loan rate is expected to fall from as high as 12% to about 8%, including variable SOFR, and Rio Tinto’s management fee from 6% to 3.95%. Projected lifetime savings are MNT 30 trillion; rate review is permitted every three years from 2029. Separate 2027 dividend negotiations continue.
Local Coverage: itoim.mn
From daily brief: 2026-09-26
2. Mongolia confirms October fuel orders as queues continue
The government says it has confirmed October AI-92 gasoline orders of about 60,000 tonnes from Russia and 8,000 tonnes from China, with South Korean and Singaporean seaborne supplies expected around mid-month. Confirmed AI-92 orders total 77,000-78,000 tonnes, while Russia is scheduled to provide 160,000 tonnes of winter diesel. Queues persisted as Russian deliveries and railcar availability constrained supply, storage capacity forced direct rail-to-station distribution, and precautionary buying doubled some stations’ workload. Reserve estimates differed between 10 and 11 days of national consumption.
Local Coverage: isee.mn, news.mn, ikon.mn, itoim.mn, urug.mn, gogo.mn, eagle.mn, tug.mn
From daily briefs: 2026-09-26, 2026-09-28, 2026-09-29, 2026-09-30, 2026-10-01, 2026-10-02
3. Parliament reviews 2027 budget proposal with unfinalized Oyu Tolgoi dividend
Parliament began reviewing the 2027 budget proposal on September 25, while the State Auditor General presented an audit opinion on September 26. The audit lists MNT 43.586 trillion in expenditure and net lending, MNT 41.28 trillion in balanced revenue, and a MNT 2.306 trillion deficit, or 2% of GDP. It found spending MNT 7.1 trillion above the May 2026 ceiling and warned of mining- and dividend-dependent revenue. The proposal includes MNT 3 trillion in Oyu Tolgoi LLC dividends, although payment terms and calculation remain unfinalized. Debt is reported as MNT 56.6 trillion in one account and MNT 57.6 trillion in the draft.
Local Coverage: itoim.mn, unuudur.mn, news.mn, gogo.mn, eagle.mn, ikon.mn
From daily briefs: 2026-09-26, 2026-09-29, 2026-10-01, 2026-10-02
4. ADB retains Mongolia growth forecasts as inflation cuts household spending
The Asian Development Bank retained Mongolia’s growth forecasts at 5.7% for 2026 and 6% for 2027 after first-half expansion was supported by recovering agriculture and exports. Merchandise export revenue rose 57.9% year on year, driven by copper prices, physical copper exports and coal volumes, while imports rose 10.7%. But second-quarter household consumption fell 4.9%, the first contraction in 18 quarters, as August inflation reached 12.5%. The ADB raised its inflation forecasts to 10.7% and 8.3%.
Local Coverage: news.mn, unuudur.mn
From daily briefs: 2026-09-26, 2026-09-29
5. Mongolia faces winter heat-shortage risk as preparation reaches 79%
Mongolia faces a risk of heat shortages this winter as thermal power plants operate above capacity and under difficult conditions. Repairs are complete on nine of 20 boilers scheduled for maintenance, with the remaining 11 between 35% and 85% complete; eight of 12 turbine generators have been repaired and the other four are 85% complete. Energy Minister B. Naidalaa said overall winter-preparation work had reached 79%. Prime Minister N. Uchral said 1,950 MW of generation would be needed this winter, while three of five renewable-energy stations under construction were 70% complete.
Local Coverage: tug.mn, gogo.mn
From daily briefs: 2026-09-26, 2026-09-29
6. Mongolia and Japan sign loan agreement to expand Chinggis Khaan Airport
Mongolia and Japan signed a 158.3 billion yen JICA STEP concessional loan agreement on September 29 to expand Chinggis Khaan International Airport. The 40-year loan has a 10-year principal grace period and fixed annual interest of 1.1%; reported planned construction runs from 2028 to 2033. The project is intended to lift annual passenger capacity from about 1.6 million to 5.2 million through expanded passenger and cargo terminals and related infrastructure. Japan also expressed readiness to open a JETRO representative office in Mongolia following September 30 talks with Prime Minister Uchral.
Local Coverage: itoim.mn, isee.mn, unuudur.mn, ikon.mn, tug.mn, gogo.mn, urug.mn, eagle.mn
From daily briefs: 2026-09-29, 2026-09-30, 2026-10-01, 2026-10-02
7. Energy Ministry selects 530 MW Gobi renewable project for Oyu Tolgoi supply
The Ministry of Energy selected Net Zero Tech, MCS International and Inner Mongolia Energy International Cooperation in a September 24 auction for 530 MW of solar and wind generation with stabilization solutions in the Gobi region. The project would connect to the Oyu Tolgoi and Tses-Oyu substations and targets 99.5% reliability for major mining customers. Its 7.9 US cents-per-kWh bid compares with Oyu Tolgoi LLC’s current 9.81-cent imports from Inner Mongolia, but reliability may require costly storage or continued connection to China’s grid after the existing supply contract expires in 2030.
Local Coverage: urug.mn, zarig.mn
From daily briefs: 2026-09-26, 2026-09-29
8. Bank of Mongolia submits 2027 monetary policy framework targeting 6% inflation
Bank of Mongolia Governor S. Narantsogt submitted draft 2027 monetary-policy guidelines to Parliament Speaker S. Byambatsogt on September 30. The framework contains 17 measures aimed at price and banking-sector stability, targeting 6% inflation in 2027 and about 5%, within a plus-or-minus two-percentage-point band, over the medium term. It proposes Basel-aligned, risk-based banking supervision and closer fiscal-monetary coordination. The proposal also calls for special government securities to address the central bank’s capital shortfall; Narantsogt reported MNT 7.5 trillion in accumulated losses tied to price-stabilization and mortgage operations.
Local Coverage: peak.mn, unuudur.mn, eagle.mn, news.mn, ikon.mn, isee.mn, itoim.mn, gogo.mn
From daily briefs: 2026-09-29, 2026-09-30, 2026-10-01, 2026-10-02
9. Mongolia and Russia sign 2027–2031 strategic defense partnership plan
Mongolia and Russia signed a strategic defense partnership plan covering 2027 through 2031 during Russian Deputy Defense Minister Vasily Osmakov’s working visit to Mongolia. Osmakov held talks with Mongolian Deputy Defense Minister Major General D. Baasandamba. Russia’s Defense Ministry said the plan is intended to develop systematic, long-term cooperation between their defense institutions. The reported agreement specifies no exercises, procurement, funding commitments, or other activities and sets out a future cooperation framework rather than completed programs.
Local Coverage: gogo.mn
From daily brief: 2026-09-30
10. Mongolia and ADB sign $100 million disaster-resilience loan
Mongolia and the Asian Development Bank signed a $100 million loan agreement to strengthen disaster resilience as natural hazards become more frequent. Deputy Prime Minister N. Nomtoibayar signed for the government. Reports differ over the ADB signatory, naming Mongolia Resident Representative John Juhyun John, ADB President Masato Kanda, or both. The project will equip firefighting and rescue units, train 200 volunteer community teams, establish an emergency-service training center in Bagakhangai District, and target equipment provision of 75–80% for the emergency sector.
Local Coverage: itoim.mn, gogo.mn, unuudur.mn, news.mn
From daily brief: 2026-09-30