Mongolia Weekly: Inflation hits 13.4%; parliament schedules budget vote, central bank submits draft
November 7, 2026 to November 13, 2026 --- 1. Oyu Tolgoi, Rio Tinto tell government they are preparing 2027 dividend plan Oyu Tolgoi LLC and Rio Tinto told the government in a letter dated November 9 that they are preparing a plan to pay 2027 dividends, while the state aims to collect 3 t
November 7, 2026 to November 13, 2026
1. Oyu Tolgoi, Rio Tinto tell government they are preparing 2027 dividend plan
Oyu Tolgoi LLC and Rio Tinto told the government in a letter dated November 9 that they are preparing a plan to pay 2027 dividends, while the state aims to collect 3 trillion tugriks on top of taxes and royalties. Finance Minister Z. Mendsaikhan said payment would come in three stages. Nothing is decided: a hearing on a petition for 857,000 tugriks per citizen was postponed without a new date, and the President favors direct payments while Prime Minister N. Uchral favors paying into the Accumulation Fund.
Local Coverage: urug.mn, eagle.mn, gogo.mn, ikon.mn, itoim.mn, isee.mn, news.mn, zarig.mn, tug.mn, unuudur.mn
From daily briefs: 2026-11-07, 2026-11-08, 2026-11-11, 2026-11-12, 2026-11-13
2. Bank of Mongolia submits 2027 policy draft to stop funding government programs
The Bank of Mongolia submitted draft 2027 monetary policy guidelines that seek to stop the central bank funding government programs. It says losses grew from 1 trillion tugrik in 2011 to 6.9 trillion tugrik, leaving a 4.8 trillion tugrik equity shortfall, which the package proposes covering over five years through Government securities. President S. Narantsogt puts quasi-fiscal measures since 2012 at 15.8 trillion tugrik. Inflation was 12.9 percent in September and reached 13.4 percent in October; the bank says addressing root causes could lower it to 5 percent.
Local Coverage: news.mn, ikon.mn
From daily briefs: 2026-11-10, 2026-11-12
3. Inflation hits 13.4% in October, year’s highest and 5.4 points above target ceiling
Consumer prices rose 13.4% year on year in October, the highest rate this year, the National Statistics Office reported. That is 5.4 percentage points above the 8% upper limit of the Bank of Mongolia’s 2026 target range. Prices rose 1.1% from September, led by a 4.2% jump in transport costs. Meat prices rose 44.4% year on year, and imported goods, 55.3% of the consumer basket, contributed 4.9 points. Fuel prices have led since the third quarter, after meat in the second.
Local Coverage: ikon.mn, gogo.mn, eagle.mn
From daily briefs: 2026-11-11, 2026-11-12
4. Parliament schedules final 2027 budget approval for Nov. 13, ahead of Nov. 15 deadline
Parliament’s plenary session is scheduled to give final approval to the 2027 state budget on Friday, Nov. 13, with the fifth discussion of the state, National Wealth Fund, Social Insurance Fund and Health Insurance Fund budgets; the law requires adoption by Nov. 15. One outlet listed final approval on the Nov. 12 agenda, but other reports for that session listed State Reserves law amendments and other items instead. Reports say Mongolian People’s Party (MPP) factions agreed to pass the budget before any cabinet reshuffle.
Local Coverage: news.mn, isee.mn, tug.mn, urug.mn
From daily briefs: 2026-11-07, 2026-11-10
5. AI-92 gasoline shortages persist as importers say supply trails demand
Importers say monthly AI-92 demand is 75,000-85,000 tonnes against a Rosneft contract minimum of about 50,000 tonnes, and that only about 15 percent of November orders had loaded as of November 10. The fuel task force reported on Nov. 9 that national stocks cover 11 days of AI-92, 30 days of diesel and 37 days of jet fuel. Regular AI-92 rose from 2,590 to 3,600 tugrik. Prime Minister N. Uchral asked two ministers for a price-cut proposal at next week’s cabinet meeting.
Local Coverage: news.mn, urug.mn, gogo.mn, ikon.mn, isee.mn, itoim.mn, eagle.mn
From daily briefs: 2026-11-07, 2026-11-10, 2026-11-12
6. Mongolia’s trade turnover rises 33.5% to $28.8 billion in January–October
Mongolia’s goods trade turnover reached $28.8 billion in January–October 2026, up 33.5%, leaving a $6.9 billion surplus. Mining drove exports: coal rose 36.9% to 88.9 million tonnes, copper concentrate 15% to 2.13 million tonnes and iron ore 3.2% to 7.45 million tonnes. Sources differ on totals: the General Customs Authority put exports at $17.8 billion, up 46%, while the National Statistics Office reported $17.9 billion, up 45.3%; imports are given as $10.9–11.0 billion. Gold exports fell 30.6% to 5.9 tonnes and meat and by-product exports fell 20.5%.
Local Coverage: ikon.mn, eagle.mn, itoim.mn, isee.mn
From daily briefs: 2026-11-10, 2026-11-12, 2026-11-13
7. Enkhbayar, Indian envoy review projects; $1.7B refinery commissioning planned Feb. 2028
Economy and Development Minister J. Enkhbayar met Indian Ambassador Atul Malhari Gotsurve on Nov. 12 to review strategic-partnership projects. India has extended a $1.7 billion concessional loan for Mongolia’s oil refinery, planned for commissioning in February 2028. Nearer-term, an Indian-funded ICT training center is planned to open in four months and a school, built with a $5.2 million grant for 1,200 children per shift, in two months. India will take a 1-tonne sample of Tavan Tolgoi coking coal for testing and is interested in importing uranium and rare earths.
Local Coverage: gogo.mn
From daily brief: 2026-11-13
8. MPP factions reportedly agree to pass 2027 budget before reshuffling Uchral’s cabinet
Media reports say Mongolian People’s Party (MPP) factions agreed to pass the 2027 budget before changing Prime Minister N. Uchral’s cabinet; the government has made no official decision. Briefs differ on timing: News.mn says law requires approval by November 15 after four readings, while another says parliament is due to approve it next week. The Democratic Party (DP) reportedly has 41 MPs’ signatures to dismiss the government, though its caucus head says no submission date is set and the DP says it has held no talks on joining.
Local Coverage: news.mn, urug.mn, itoim.mn, isee.mn
From daily briefs: 2026-11-07, 2026-11-10, 2026-11-12
9. Energy minister says 11 thermal plants run 42- to 65-year-old equipment without reserves
Energy Minister B. Naidalaa told the Standing Committee on Economy that 11 thermal power plants run 42- to 65-year-old equipment without reserve capacity in winter peak load. National Dispatching Center CEO G. Baljinnyam projected 1,956 MW peak demand and said restrictions of 100-200 MW, each lasting no more than one hour, could be needed if demand exceeds forecasts or equipment at Thermal Power Plant No. 4 or other licensed producers stops. Thermal Power Plant No. 4, which supplies 56 percent of Ulaanbaatar’s heating, has 23 days of coal reserves.
Local Coverage: eagle.mn, itoim.mn
From daily brief: 2026-11-13
10. Erdenes Tavan Tolgoi reports 1 trillion tugrug dividend, unmodified audit to Uchral
Prime Minister N. Uchral visited Erdenes Tavan Tolgoi on November 12, where the company reported paying 1 trillion tugrug in dividends to the state budget and an unmodified international BDO audit opinion. Third-quarter net profit of 1.5 trillion tugrik exceeded its 1 trillion full-year target. Briefs differ on nine-month coal mining: 28.6 million tonnes in one, 32.1 million in another. Truck capacity limits exports, with 700,000 tonnes stockpiled at the processing plant; the design for a 20 km rail link is complete and a tender is being prepared.
Local Coverage: gogo.mn, urug.mn, isee.mn, news.mn, peak.mn
From daily briefs: 2026-11-07, 2026-11-10, 2026-11-13